Short answer: sideways with a mild downward bias in April 2026. The year started with gains, but buyer sentiment has weakened heading into Q2. Here's what the data says.
The Current Direction
CFR Turkey
$384/t
YTD Change
+5.3%
April Trend
-3.1%
Sentiment
46.9
Sources: GMK Center, Fastmarkets Trend Indicator
The CFR Turkey HMS 1/2 benchmark — the price that drives UK scrap steel markets — rose steadily through Q1 2026, climbing from ~$365/t in January to $388.3/t by late March. That was the highest level since July 2024. But April is showing signs of a pullback.
The Fastmarkets Trend Indicator for April sits at 46.9 — below the neutral 50 line — pointing to a forecasted 3.1% month-on-month decline. Buyer sentiment is the weakest component at 40.7, while sellers and brokers remain neutral at 50.0.
Today's UK Scrap Steel Prices
| Grade | Price / kg | ||
|---|---|---|---|
HMS 1 Heavy Steel, Heavy Iron | £0.215 | ||
HMS 2 Light Steel, Mix Iron | £0.260 | ||
Light Iron Tin Cans, White Goods | £0.160 | ||
Cast Iron Radiators, Manhole Covers | £0.120 | ||
P&S (Plate & Structural) Girders, Heavy Plate | Awaiting data | ||
What's Pushing Prices Down
- Weak Turkish demand: Turkey is the UK's largest scrap export destination. Turkish rebar sales remain soft, and mill margins are thin. Turkish steelmakers tried to pull back purchases in late February, though supply tightness prevented prices from falling further
- Buyer resistance: After Q1 price increases, buyers are pushing back. The Fastmarkets buy-side reading of 40.7 shows mills and traders expect lower prices in April
- Global oversupply: World steel capacity is growing by 165 million tonnes by 2027, while demand grows at just 0.7% per year. This structural overhang limits sustained price recovery (SteelOnTheNet)
What's Supporting Prices
- Tight scrap supply: Available scrap volumes in the EU and UK tightened in Q1 2026. Sellers held firm, preventing a sharper correction despite weak demand
- Rising freight costs: Higher shipping and energy costs are keeping the floor under delivered scrap prices
- Policy support incoming: The UK's new steel safeguard takes effect 1 July 2026, cutting import quotas by 60% and doubling the out-of-quota tariff to 50% (GOV.UK). The UK CBAM follows in January 2027
What Should You Do?
If you're selling scrap steel now: Prices are at a reasonable level after the Q1 recovery. If you have material ready to sell, there's no strong reason to wait — April may see a modest dip. Get quotes from multiple yards and use our calculator to estimate your value.
If you can wait: The second half of 2026 should see some price support from the new safeguard measures. And if you can hold material until early 2027, the CBAM could meaningfully improve scrap economics.
We update this analysis as market conditions change. For the full outlook, see our 2026–2027 price forecast.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are scrap steel prices going up or down right now?
As of April 2026, UK scrap steel prices face mild downward pressure in the short term. The Fastmarkets Trend Indicator is at 46.9 (below neutral 50), and buyer sentiment is weak. However, the underlying trend since January has been modestly positive, with the CFR Turkey benchmark up 5.3% year-to-date.
When is the best time to sell scrap steel?
Steel scrap prices tend to be stronger in spring (March-May) when construction activity picks up. Avoid selling in late December or January when yards are quieter. Watch the CFR Turkey benchmark for weekly trends. If prices have been rising for 2-3 weeks, it may be worth selling before the cycle turns.